In contrast, the Congress would maintain its 38% vote share but get only 43 seats, a drop of 16 from its 2007 tally, the LensOnNews survey said.
The findings follow a survey of 7,294 voters across 52 constituencies across the state.
The BJP's projected seats would be a gain of one% in vote share but would give it 16 more seats as compared to 2007, it said.
The Congress is slated to maintain its 38% vote share but get only 43 seats.
It said the phenomenon of a small swing of vote share resulting in a disproportionate benefit to the BJP in terms of seats was dominantly due to the delimitation exercise.
Of the 16 more seats projected to be gained by the BJP since 2007, a substantial number of 10 seats are to be attributed to an increase in the number of urban seats, it said.
The Congress, the survey said, was handicapped as it lacked a state leader to match the stature of chief minister Narendra Modi.
"This has played into Modi's hands, and he has converted the election into a battle between the 'six crore people of Gujarat' and the 'Delhi Sultanate' of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi."
It said former BJP chief minister Keshubhai Patel's attempts to rally his Leuva Patel community to undercut Modi had failed make a dent in the BJP's vote share.
The LenOnNews Poll was conducted between Sep 2 and 28. The results are subject to a margin of error of 3%.
